Within the environmental community, there is widespread acceptance of the Ehrlich equation that establishes the relationship among four factors: population (P), affluence (A), technology (T), and environmental impact (I). The relationships are expressed in the famous Ehrlich impact equation: I=PxAxT (published in The Population Bomb by Paul and Anne Ehrlich). Many consider this equation immutable, and believe there is no way to break its iron grip on humanity. As any of the three independent variables grows, environmental impact increases.
How do we break the grip of this equation on the future of humankind? How do we rewrite the equation for a sustainable future?
One huge challenge to the global industrial system is to move the T (call it T1) from the numerator to the denominator (now call it T2). Renewable, recyclable materials fit the category, as does renewable energy. As technologies transition from T1 that belong in the numerator to T2 in the denominator, the equation changes to: I=(PxAxT1)/T2
and impacts (I) are reduced.
As T2 displaces T1, the future looks very different.
But, what about the capital “A” for affluence? It suggests that affluence is an end in itself, satisfying unlimited “wants,” rather than “needs”. What if we converted “A” to “a”, signifying affluence to be a means to an end, and not the end in itself? Then the equation would read: I = (PxaxT1)/T2 .
And what if societal changes and priorities allowed happiness to increase without more and more affluence? Then the equation, over time, could evolve to: I=(PxaxT1)/T2
More happiness with less stuff, all made sustainably.
Now we have the impact equation for a sustainable future.
When I talk about this on the speaking circuit, this explanation always gets a big reaction – audiences love the idea of more happiness, less stuff. So why do we find ourselves in the mess than we’re in, environmentally and socially speaking? How will we find our way out of it?